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GEAS: Survival Horizons Revisited

Our work makes a difference.
GEAS Jamais Cascio

Shortly after the Superstruct project began, we at GEAS took a look at how our collective efforts translated into extension of the survival horizon, and concluded that the models we started with were too optimistic. After just a day of activity, the models had already projected an eight-year improvement in our survival horizon; this struck us as unlikely, and a re-examination of our work led us to make a major change in the algorithms. We took a fairly conservative approach, and reduced the horizon impact of superstructure work by 90%.

(All of this is explained in more detail at http://superstructgame.net/StoryView/66 )

But the work on understanding the survival horizon didn't stop there. GEAS has had its Horizon Modeling team working diligently to better understand the impact of what we're doing. A few days ago, the HM team came to Audrey with a startling finding:

We're now closer to the original model than to the revised calculation.

Not because we hadn't made a mistake before -- there was definitely an error in the initial calculations, and we were right to adjust the settings. No, this recalculation comes from the impacts that the superstructure work has already had on institutional behavior and public action: We're starting to see second- and third-order effects from superstructure strategies.

But just as important, it turns out, were the meta-superstructures, such as the Tag Garden, creating clear mechanisms for understanding the linkages between and emergent structure of the superstructure work. These metastructs serve as accelerants, making the entire process work better.

As a result, we will shortly be revising the survival horizon calculation again. It won't go back to 100:1, but it will be closer to that than to the current 1000:1. You'll see the exact results shortly.

Excellent work, SEHIs. 

Nov 16
Survival Horizon


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