OVERVIEW

The interlocking global networks of production, distribution, and consumption of food may be among the most complex human systems ever developed. Historically, the interdependency of these networks gave the system as a whole strength; now, as more of the components give way, the system as a whole appears on the verge of global disaster.

Of all of the superthreats, Ravenous is perhaps the most easily understood, and widely felt. Individuals and families may be able to avoid direct contact with the other superthreats (at least in the short-term), but no-one is immune to the possibility of starvation. From the post-industrial nations to the poorest developing country, all of us face the increasingly common situation of finding foods we have come to depend upon no longer available. In the best-case scenario, it's temporary, and alternatives can easily be acquired; in the worst-case scenario, as has happened to over a billion people world-wide in the last five years, we begin to talk about famine.

Historically, famines tend to be driven by local politics as much as temporary environmental conditions. The Ravenous superthreat, however, describes a much more complex and troubling situation. Ravenous isn't just about the lack of specific foods in particular locations--it's about ongoing crises in the total food system, both natural and commercial. Most historical famines pass with attention, aid, and time; Ravenous will require far more.

The global conflicts and crises related to the Ravenous superthreat have a variety of manifestations, including:

  • * Tensions have increased among China, Japan and Indonesia over piracy of rice shipments. Attempts at multilateral talks have stalled as Chinese, Japanese, and Indonesian navies threaten each other near the Malacca Straits.
  • * So-called "food remittances" now outpace cash remittances from migrants to relatives in developing world. Because food can't be simply wire-transferred, cheap shipping services have sprung up. They're typically slow, but secure.
  • * The Indian parliament has voted to do away with agricultural subsidies as economically untenable. Political chaos has erupted as long-standing voter blocks fragment, and millions of people are flooding the capitol in protest.
  • * Industrial-grade bioengineered corn--not certified for human or animal consumption--has been found mixed in with food corn, unleashing a food safety panic in southern Europe.
  • * For the seventh consecutive year, global bee populations have declined; experts now predict a total collapse by 2024.

FOOD WEBS

The term "food webs" describes an interconnected set of production, distribution, and consumption networks. As with a web, a break at one location can leave the whole system vibrating; but as with a web, each successive break weakens the system as a whole, increasing the chance it will give way entirely. Recent years have seen core food networks under increasing assault, from both human activity and environmental changes.

Production webs are at risk from rapid declines in topsoil, as well as disruptions in predatory/prey and pollinator cycles. Drought, global warming, and the increasing cost of fertilizer further increase the risk, particularly in the developing world. However, regions heavily dependent upon industrialized agriculture have been hit the hardest; both the United States and Australia, once leading food exporters, have seen transient need for food imports over the past five years.

Distribution webs see risks from rapid increases in the costs of energy for shipping, as well as from now-prevalent calculations of the environmental footprint of transportation of goods. As visible as these risks are, they have less long-term impact than the changing politics and culture around localism. Preferences for locally-grown foods is not in and of itself risky, but as we see with the Power Struggle superthreat, systems in transition can easily get caught between stable states, unable to gain the benefits of either the original or the intended structure.

Consumption webs face risks around the ability of markets to afford food, political demands around food ingredients, and above all food safety. No longer easily attributed to a single country or producer, food safety issues have become nightmarishly commonplace.

DYING SEAS

It has become clear over the past two decades that the ocean environment is close to total collapse. Overuse, pollution, and large-scale changes to ocean chemistry and temperature threaten the survival of many species and put at risk many ecosystem services that humans have come to depend on. The drivers are manifold: population growth and unsustainable development; international competition and instability; and above all, global warming.

The threats to human survival coming from ocean collapse are manifold. Nitrogen runoff from agricultural fertilizers has sterilized large stretches of coastal waters. Changing ocean temperatures and chemistry have altered the long-term migratory cycles of numerous species. Algae blooms leave coastal fish species toxic, sickening humans and killing oceanic mammals.

Fish populations in general are in calamitous decline. Top deep ocean predators such as blue-fin tuna and swordfish are now considered effectively extinct, causing disruptions down the food chain. The near-disappearance of salmon has had a similar impact closer to the shore. The disruption doesn't just hit natural systems; fishing has been a human occupation for millennia, and fishing communities have been devastated by these changes.

POINTS OF IMPACT

Everyone is hit by Ravenous, albeit at different levels. Some locations face a more acute situation, due to the combination of population, environmental crisis, and political strife. Food-related industries relying on inefficient and nonsustainable practices also face rapid decline.

Examples of communities and practices most likely to suffer from this superthreat include:

  • • China
  • • Central America
  • • Middle East
  • • Processed food industry
  • • Meat production, especially beef

CONNECTIONS

The Ravenous superthreat interacts with the four other superthreats in the following ways:

Quarantine: Starvation is exacerbating existing health crises, increasing mortality rates. Pandemic disease has disrupted food distribution, workforce productivity, and overall healthcare capacity.

Outlaw Planet: Starvation has increased demands for monitoring of agricultural systems, distribution, and (in some cases) consumption. Growing conflict over food has led to terror and griefing attacks on food systems.

Power Struggle: Conflicts over biofuels have exacerbated conflicts over food, and vice-versa. High energy costs continue to increase the cost of agriculture, and the demands for natural gas for energy make fertilizer much more expensive.

Generation Exile: Migrating populations lead to unpredictable food demands, and unexpected stresses on food infrastructure and workforce. Famine and related conditions serve as a key driver for ongoing migration.